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The Key Variables to Denuclearization of North Korea
———Limitation and Transcendence of AHP
HUANG Jin⁃hui, WEI Xing
(
School of Political Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610064, China)
Abstract:The exact comprehension of the variable key to denuclearization of North Korea is the im⁃
portant premise of an effective solution to North Korea’s nuclear crisis. The analytic hierarchy process
(
AHP) can analyze the main factors in North Korea’s denuclearization from both international and do⁃
mestic levels. Limited by traditional research methods of international relationship, the existing researches
focus on analysis to variable hierarchy factors in international system without attention to North Korea’s
domestic system. Due to geopolitical layout in Northeast Asia and North Korea’s particular political eco⁃
system, the key to denuclearization lays on domestic level. North Korea’s highly⁃centralized state power
in its leadership system enables the top decision⁃maker to make a conclusive influence on denucleariza⁃
tion. Furthermore, analyzed by normal form of international political psychology, the characteristics, psy⁃
cho⁃cognitive pattern and logical behavior of North Korean top decision⁃maker does not allow North Korea
to change current nuclear strategy in the short run. To realize North Korea’s denuclearization, China, U⁃
nited States, Russia and South Korea must overcome difficulty, co⁃operate and thus form new policies to
make North Korea’s top decision⁃maker understand that nuclearization will do harm to his nation’s fun⁃
damental interests. Only in that way can North Korea’s denuclearization be turned into reality.
Key words:North Korea; denuclearization; analytic hierarchy process(AHP); international politi⁃
cal psychology
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责任编辑:张ꢀ 卉]
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